Thursday, August 14, 2008

"The Black Swan" an interesting book by Naseem Taib

Usually I am not too fond of reading mathematics & probability books for fun, but someone strongly recommended this book, so I borrowed it from library and started reading with a condition that If I get bored during the first 5 pages its going out of the window.

But my O my how wrong was I. This book is simply amazing. It shattered some of my everyday concepts on many levels. Its written with a reason to predict unpredictable events in stock markets around the world, and about highly improbable events e.g not having very un-common events like 9/11 or war in Lebanon is actually more uncommon than having ones (means that unprobable events are bound to happen, world can not be happy place for too long, the probability of things going right for too long is very low); and the influences these highly improbable and unpredictable events create are massive. But since we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.

kool… :) rite?

1 comment:

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